From emerging trends to strategic shifts, John Wright, VP of Mobile Publishing at Kwalee, counts down his top 10 predictions for the gaming industry. We also hear from some more gaming industry luminaries on some of their thoughts for the future, providing a comprehensive look at what might shape the world of gaming in the years to come.

10. The Return of an Older Casual Sub-Genre 

I think we can anticipate the return or dominance of at least one completely new or old successful gaming genre. My pick is Casual Puzzle/RPG, reminiscent of titles like Puzzles and Dragons, catering to a more diverse audience seeking deeper meta and storytelling within a familiar gaming core loop experience. 

9. Apple Arcade and Netflix

Apple Arcade and Netflix will become standard deal formats for large studios working on successful or new games with strong retention but weak monetisation prospects.

Netflix secured a significant portion of the GTA back catalogue, which dominated the top of the mobile charts and drove considerable business. Similarly, the announcement of Hades is expected to have a similar impact in the upcoming period.

Apple has been very vocal about gaming being a priority. However, as an Apple Arcade user myself, I can't say that the quality of the games has met my expectations. I've noticed many "plus" versions but not much beyond that. 

8. Google’s Privacy Sandbox

Google’s Privacy Sandbox will impact Android user acquisition by the year-end, posing increased challenges for marketers, but it definitely won't be as impactful as Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) update. In my opinion, Google aims to support the ecosystem while maintaining user privacy, learning from Apple's approach.

This will come into full effect by Q4 2024, I believe. It will gradually gain more traction throughout the year, and developers will focus more as time goes on. I anticipate that when I revisit these predictions in Q4, we might have more to discuss. 

7. Hybrid-Casual will be a Winning Genre 

Hybrid-casual will become the popular format for small- to medium-sized developers, while big studios will aggressively embrace casual gaming. This shift will mainly be driven by the production costs and the resources required for that next level of gaming experience, which only the big names can afford to invest in right now.

Back in January, I mentioned Hybrid is a stepping stone for studios into Casual. Was I mistaken? I think not:

• Kwalee released its first casual game, "Text Express," by Story Giant Games. 
• Supersonic from Unity secured a casual shooter, Nitro Games Plc's Autogun Heroes.
• Voodoo went to the new level and intensified its focus on Midcore.
• Supercent delved into Hybrid with the very successful and fun, Pizza Ready!
• "My Perfect Hotel" by SayGames emerged as the gold standard of Hybrid Casual.

6. AI in Games will see More Growth

AI will play a more significant role in game creation, expanding from marketing to influencing actual game development. Expect more studios to successfully incorporate AI into various aspects of their games, namely on the coding side.

Last year focused more on quick iterations and new concept creation in marketing assets. A noteworthy talk byKenjy VANITOU highlighted howVoodoo reduced asset creation time from 24 to 1 hour using AI. This year, we're witnessing more daring explorations of AI in gameplay, with shout-outs to my friendGus Viegas atCosmic Lounge, who's leading the charge.King has also openly discussed integrating AI into aspects of level design.

5. Mindset Shift from Acquisition to Cultivation

Studios will shift their mindset from acquiring users at the lowest cost possible to maximising Lifetime Value (LTV) per user over much longer and extended periods. This shift emphasises long-term user experience, responding to the increased difficulty of user acquisition in 2023.

Monitoring this shift isn't straightforward, but a prime example isSupercell's revamped strategy for Brawl Stars.. At the end of last year, they were acquiring about 3 million new users monthly, which has now surged to 10 million, a growth of 230%. However, the real intrigue lies in the revenue metrics: RPU jumped from $3.3 to $5.9, a 76% increase, while gross revenue soared from $10mn to $58mn, a staggering 487% rise. 

4. LiveOps and Events are Key

LiveOps and Events strategies will become the industry standards. Companies not prioritising these approaches will lag behind the ones that do. Whilst success is possible without LiveOps, a focused strategy in this area will lead to greater strength and success, through heightened monetisation.

Royal Match has set a record as the quickest game to achieve $3 billion in revenue, soaring from $2 billion in a brief period. Monopoly Go saw its revenue double from $1 billion to $2 billion within only three months. The challenge of launching new games is growing, evidenced by a yearly decline in the number of new games reaching the top 20. Meanwhile, Brawl Stars' monthly revenue surged from $10 million at the end of 2023 to an impressive $50-60 million in 2024.

3. IP-Based Games will Enjoy Success

Intellectual Property (IP) games will witness heightened success on the charts, exemplified by Monopoly Go. Hasbro and Mattel experienced significant success in 2023 across the board, showcasing the convergence of games and movies in transmedia, providing studios with even more strategic opportunities, leaning on brand recognition and large existing audiences to reduce CAC (increase in organics + reductions in CPI’s).

For example, Monopoly Go has risen to become the largest game globally, while Rollic has revealed plans to launch a Barbie game by the end of the year. Voodoo has debuted a Transformers-themed event in one of their games, and Kwalee has rolled out a new Ghostbusters AR game. Additionally, EA has announced that their mobile strategy will now concentrate on IP-based games.

2. The Resurgence of Mergers and Acquisitions 

Mergers and acquisitions will see a resurgence, with venture capitalists increasing their investments, albeit not reaching the levels of two years ago. I've observed a growing number of investments and discussions among business leaders recently which will come to fruition soon (hopefully). VC firms, having had a quieter year, will need to take more risks but will do so with more aggressive requests leading founders to relinquish more equity to secure much needed funding.

Just a few examples of this include Take-Two Interactive’s acquisition of Gearbox Entertainment, valued at $400mn. Also, Monumentals acquisition of Games Circus; and, Voldox’s acquisition of Roblox’s Ultimate Football.

1. Consolidation is Growing

The major news revolves arounddata.ai andSensor Tower merging to become the largest and arguably most dominant data provider in gaming. Will this lead to a monopoly, potentially posing challenges for those of us in the industry? It's a possibility, but not for now. 

As for the consolidation of mobile games, significant movements have yet to materialize, but there's ample time for that to change.Embracer Group, however, took the opposite route by splitting into three parts, which contradicts "consolidation" technically. 

 

What is the industry saying?

UA emerges as a cornerstone 

UA and game design will become one for Mobile F2P, if you want to breach the CPI wall. We will be making fleshed out game

s for UA purposes to put on top of our main games, and completely new games will be created from scratch just because of the latest trending UA creatives. 

-  Jakub Remiar, Founder & Host, two & a half gamers

 

Increased convergence of mobile gaming and short-form video UX

I think that TikTok already heavily influences performant UA creative and will continue to do so. I think we will also see more crossover between mobile games and short form video in UX and design. The Rooms game (room.xyz not the Firebox series) is just the start.

- Laura Taranto, Senior Director of Product, Big Fish Games

 

AI integration still remains slow and steady for some

Game genres won't be impacted by the coming of AI this year. Player-facing AI-first games won’t be coming this year yet. It's too much change for older studios to steer the ship towards just yet. They need flagship examples first. But that doesn't mean this isn't already the first year in which studios are testing UA creatives with AI (they already are), augmenting their art processes with AI (they already are) or even doing more interesting stuff on the product side (like Cosmic Lounge is). 

So, it'll be the start of internal teams adopting tooling, but not yet impact enough for the players to notice.

- Gus Viegas, VP Marketing, Cosmic Lounge

 

MENA leads, APAC innovates

The MENA market is expected to rise within 10 years -  more than 80%. Afrogames are the new Afrobeats, and this won’t only be relevant in MENA but also worldwide! Inclusive game design and expanding teams to Africa, India, and South America will provide new perspectives - these will be first led by APAC studio and will provide them a significant competitive advantage to scale those markets with ownership of the distribution. 

- Claire Roizan, Co-founder, YouthWave Games